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Zorgen over olietoevoer Suez-kanaal

31 01 11 - 17:02 Hoewel de olieprijs maandagochtend even piekte op 99,97 dollar per vat is er nog geen sprake van grote onrust op financiële markten. De crisis in Egypte zal voorlopig niet leiden tot transportproblemen in het Suez kanaal, denkt Société Generale.

Onzekerheid of de aanhoudende onrust in Egypte zal overslaan naar belangrijke, olieproducerende landen in het Midden-Oosten en Noord-Afrika blijft echter het sentiment bepalen. Vrijdag steeg de olieprijs reeds met 2 procent op angst voor ‘besmettingsgevaar’ en eventuele problemen met de oliedistributie via het Suez kanaal. De OPEC landen uit het Midden-Oosten en Noord-Afrika zijn volgens Bloomberg goed voor 31 procent van de wereldolieproductie.


Geen direct gevaar
Het Suez kanaal bij Egypte is één van de belangrijkste doorvoerroutes in de regio, dagelijks worden er ca. 1 miljoen vaten ruwe olie en petroleum vervoert, aldus de EIA. Volgens Société Generale is er geen direct gevaar. “The point is that without an organized political movement, we do not see the supply threat coming in the form of organized paramilitary attacks on the Suez Canal or the Sumed pipeline”. De 320 kilometer lange Sumed pijplijn is goed voor 2,5 miljoen vaten per dag.

De vraag is natuurlijk wat er op langere termijn gaat gebeuren, indien in Egypte een nieuwe regering de macht overneemt. Société Generale wijst op alternatieven. De Straat van Hormoes, de belangrijkste vaarroute voor de olie-export van Saoedi-Arabië, Koeweit, de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten en Irak, staat echter onder gedeeltelijke controle van Iran. Dagelijks worden via Hormoes 15,5 miljoen vaten verscheept. Een nieuwe ‘Suez crisis’ is volgens SG onwaarschijnlijk.

© Blikopdebeurs.com

Update: olieprijs doorbreekt toch 100 dollar Used tags: , , , ,
114 reacties

Een crisis/revolutie in het Midden-Oosten en de Arabische landen is een Black Swan die op niemands lijstje voor 2011 stond.
http://www.blikopdebeurs.com/weblog1/piv..

In Saoedi-Arabi kan het ook gaan gisten, met een elite van
Shi-iten die de Soennitische meerderheid van de olierijkdom afhoudt, een jonge en redelijk goed opgeleide bevolking, maar ook met grote jeugdwerkloosheid.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme..

Mogelijk scenario (?): de Saoedische bevolking komt in opstand, werpt het regime omver, houdt de olie deels zelf om een moderne, welvarende economie op te bouwen (na decennia van armoede onder het koningsjuk) en sluit akkoorden met China en Brazili voor olie en handel. De Westerse wereld heeft het nakijken, die heeft lang genoeg geprofiteerd van de olie, zo redeneren de Saoedi's. Ons welvaartsniveau zakt 40 a 50 jaar terug, bedrijven gaan failliet, de schuldenbergen zijn niet meer terug te betalen, banken onderuit, financile systeem plat, schuldoverladen Westerse overheden failliet, al of niet via hyperinflatie.
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Stiglitz: Europa, kies voor groei!

Editors Choice -- 08 2013 at 9:50 pm Nobelprijswinnaar Joseph Stiglitz: A central bank that focuses not only on inflation, but also on growth, employment, and financial stability; Replacing anti-growth austerity policies with pro-growth policies focusing on investments in people, technology, and infrastructure.




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