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'Grieks besmettingsgevaar reëel'

17 02 10 - 21:48 Financiële markten onderschatten besmettingsgevaar van de schuldencrisis in Griekenland. Europese banken lopen grote risico’s en de kans op een ‘double dip’ recessie neemt toe. Dat schrijven de analisten van zakenbank Morgan Stanley.

Enkele quotes van het analistenrapport, waar de website The Pragmatic Capitalist uit citeert:

“We recommend selling risky assets into strength over the near term.  The road to repair will be a long, painful journey buffeted by tremendous uncertainty—not typically a great environment for risk-taking.  While the announcement details will garner the headlines, the real medium/longer term issue for the markets is not whether troubled sovereigns get the needed aid/liquidity, but rather, whether the aid and the accompanying necessary fiscal retrenchment leads to an unexpectedly soft mid-cycle economic slowdown—or, worse, a double dip—for the developed world.”

Opvallend is de visie dat financiële markten de Griekse problemen ten onrechte beschouwen als een geïsoleerde crisis. Morgan Stanley wijst op serieus ‘besmettingsgevaar’, mede door de grote onderlinge verbondenheid van het Europese bancaire systeem.

Contagion effects
“What the markets are missing.  CDS spreads on Greek sovereign debt, yield-curve steepness, and earnings expectations implicit in equities are all too sanguine given the severity of the crisis. The market is underestimating the tough domestic fiscal reform needed, without which ECB liquidity support is unlikely to be forthcoming. And because of the close interrelationships between the European banking system and sovereign credit, the contagion effects are much greater than the market perceives.”

De zakenbank was, in tegenstelling tot Goldman Sachs, zo wie zo al behoorlijk bearish over 2010. En de kans is volgens MS dus groot dat de ‘knoflookgrens’ richting het noorden zal opschuiven.

© Blikopdebeurs.com Gebruikte Tags: analisten, banken, economie, griekenland, outlook2010

Is het goud tijdperk voorbij?

Editors Choice -- Dinsdag 21 Mei 2013 at 11:57 pm

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