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Griekse tragedie voor de euro?

30 01 10 - 20:34 Het door schulden overladen Griekenland is zo goed als bankroet. Wat zijn de gevolgen voor de euro en financiële markten? John Mauldin waarschuwt dat een bailout geen oplossing biedt. "You cannot cure too much debt with more debt". publiceert met toestemming het volgende artikel uit Mauldin’s nieuwsbrief van zaterdag 30 januari.

Greeks Bearing Gifts

On Monday, the government of Greece offered a "gift" to the markets of 8 billion euros worth of bonds at a rather high 6.25%. The demand was for 25 billion euros, so this offering was rather robust. Today, those same Greek bonds closed on 6.5%, more than offsetting the first year's coupon. Greek bond yields are up more than 150 basis points in the last month!

Why such a one-week turnaround? Ambrose Evans Pritchard offers up this thought: "Marc Ostwald, from Monument Securities, said the botched bond issue of €8bn (£6.9bn) of Greek debt earlier this week has made matters worse. Many of the investors were 'hot money' funds that bought on rumors that China was emerging as a buyer, offering them a chance for quick profit. When the China story was denied by Beijing and Athens, these funds rushed for the exit."

Greece is running a budget deficit of 12.5%. Under the Maastricht Treaty, they are supposed to keep it at 3%. Their GDP was $374 billion in 2008 (about €240 billion). If they can cut their budget deficit to 10% this year, that means they will need to go into the bond market for another €25 billion or so. But they already have a problem with rising debt. Look at the following graph on the debt of various countries.

When Russia defaulted on its debt and sent the world into crisis in 1998, they had total debt of only €51 billion. Greece now has €254 billion and added another €8 billion this week, and needs to add another €24 billion (or so) later this year. That's a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 100%, well above the limit of the treaty, which is 60%.

Greece benefitted from being in the Eurozone by getting very low interest rates, up until recently. Being in the Eurozone made investors confident. Now that confidence is eroding daily. And this week's market action says rates will go higher, without some fiscal discipline. To help my US readers put this in perspective, let's assume that Greece was the size of the US. To get back to Maastricht Treaty levels, they would need to cut the deficit by 4% of GDP for the next few years. If the US did that, it would mean an equivalent budget cut of $500 billion dollars. Per year. For three years running.

That would guarantee a very deep recession. Just a 10% suggested pay cut has Greek government unions already planning strikes. Nevertheless, the government of Greece recognizes that it simply cannot continue to run such huge deficits. They have developed a plan that aims to narrow the shortfall from 12.7% of output, more than four times the EU limit, to 8.7% this year. That reduction will be achieved even though the economy will contract 0.3%, the plan says. The deficit will shrink to 5.6% next year and 2.8% in 2012.

The market is saying they don't believe that will happen. For one thing, if the Greek economy goes into recession, the amount collected in taxes will fall, meaning the shortfall will increase. Second, it is not clear that Greek voters will approve such a plan at their next elections. Riots and demonstrations are a popular pastime.

Both French and German ministers made it clear that there would be no bailout of Greece. But here's the problem. If they ignore the noncompliance, there is no meaning to the treaty. The euro will be called into question. And the other countries with serious fiscal problems will ask why they should cut back if Greece does not. If Greece does not choose deep cutbacks and recession, the markets will keep demanding hikes in interest rates, and eventually Greece will have problems meeting just its interest payments.

Can this go on for some time? The analysis of debt crises in history says yes, but there comes a time when confidence breaks. My friends from GaveKal had this thought:

"What is the next step? Having lived through the Mexican, Thai, Korean and Argentine crises, it is hard not to distinguish a common pattern. In our view, this means that investors need to confront the fact that we are at an important crossroads for Greece, best symbolized by a simple question: 'If you were a Greek saver with all of your income in a Greek bank, given what is happening to the debt of your sovereign, would you feel comfortable keeping all of your life savings in your savings institution? Or would you start thinking about opening an account in a foreign bank and/or redeeming your currency in cash?' The answer to this question will likely direct the next phase of the crisis. If we start to see bank runs in Greece, then investors will have to accept that the crisis has run out of control and that we are facing a far more bearish investment environment. However, if the Greek population does not panic and does not liquefy/transfer its savings, then European policy-makers may still have a chance to find a political solution to this growing problem.

"What could a political solution be? The answer here is simple: there is none. So if Europe wants to save Greece from hitting the wall towards which it is now heading, the European commission, the ECB and/or other institutions (IMF?) will have to bend the rules massively. In turn, this will likely lead to a further collapse in the euro. But for us, an important question is whether it could also lead to a serious political backlash. Indeed, at this stage, elected politicians are likely pondering how much appetite there is amongst their electorate for yet another bailout, and for further expansions in government debt levels. The fact that the intervention would occur on behalf of a foreign country probably makes it all the more unpalatable (it's one thing to save your domestic banking system ... but why save Greece?)."

If Greece is bailed out, Portugal and Ireland will ask "Why not us?" And Spain? Italy? If Greece is allowed to flaunt the rules, what does that say about the future of the euro? Will Germany and France insist on compliance or be willing to kick Greece out?

A few months ago, the markets assumed that not only Greece but Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Ireland would have a few years to get their houses in order. This week, the markets shortened their time horizon for Greece.

Even so, we get this quote, which may end up ranking alongside Fisher's quote in 1929, that the stock market was at a permanently high plateau, or Bernanke's quote that "The subprime debt problem will be contained."

"There is no bailout problem," Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said today at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. "Greece will not default. In the euro area, default does not exist."

The evidence in This Time is Different is that default risk does in fact exist. You cannot keep borrowing past your income, whether as a family or a government, and not eventually go bankrupt.

Are we at an inflection point? Too early to say. It all depends on the willingness of the Greek people to endure what will not be a fun next few years, for the privilege of staying in the Eurozone. And on whether the bond market believes that this time is different and the Greeks will actually get their fiscal house in order.

Oh by the way, did I mention that the history of Greece is not exactly pristine in terms of default? In fact, they have been in default in one way or another for 105 out of the past 200 years. Aristotle, can you spare a dime?

And one last thought. The US is running massive deficits. If we do not get them under control, we will one day, and perhaps quite soon, face our own "Greek moment." Look at the graph below, and weep.

Obama offering to freeze spending by 17% in US discretionary-spending programs, after he ran them up over 20% in just one year, is laughable. Greece is an object lesson for the world, as Japan soon will be. You cannot cure too much debt with more debt.

John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline that goes to over 1 million readers each week. For more information on John or his FREE weekly economic letter go to: Used tags: , , , ,
28 reacties

Roubini maakt zich meer zorgen over Spanje:
peter - 30 01 10 - 22:06

times on sunday:
nieuwkomer - 31 01 10 - 12:02

Wat ze als eerste kunnen doen is het heffen van belasting van 'niet afgebouwde huizen'. Als je in Grienkenland bent, dan steekt er uit een woning altijd ergens een stuk vlechtijzer uit de constructie. Dat is omdat het gebouw dan niet officieel is afgebouwd en er minder belasting voor moet worden betaald. Zet dat maar eerst recht!
Edwin - 31 01 10 - 14:16

Oh ja, en dan kan de nederlandse overheid ook morgen stoppen met de heffingskorting op huizen waar in gewoond wordt, dat slaat ook nergens op en heeft geen nut gehad in het betaalbaar houden van woningen.

Dat soort maatregelen zorgt ervoor dat juist de mensen die nu al nauwelijks kunnen rondkomen het dan helemaal niet meer lukt.
martin - 31 01 10 - 14:56

Zoals je het stelt ben ik het met je eens. Alleen wil het geval dat 9 op de 10 woningen om die reden ijzers uit de woning laten steken.
Edwin - 31 01 10 - 15:58

Een prachtige indicator, niet?

Het patriotisme zal niet echt meewerken om landen in de schil te helpen van dit rottingsproces. De maatregelen die Griekenland ten tonele bracht zijn helemaal ongeloofwaardig. De maatregelen die de EU wil opleggen, geloof dat Griekenland hier geen gehoor aan gaat geven. Een bailout van Frankrijk en Duitsland bv zal er ook niet inzitten.
Ferry - 01 02 10 - 12:08

Mooi artikel.
Ferry - 01 02 10 - 14:28

"De maatregelen die de EU wil opleggen, geloof dat Griekenland hier geen gehoor aan gaat geven."

Die mening ben ik ook toebedeeld. Ik ben overigens benieuwd tot in hoeverre van toerisme afhankelijk is. Want dat zal de komende jaren ook geen vetpot zijn.
Edwin - 01 02 10 - 18:20

Grappig, laatste grafiekje en citaat van Mauldin ('Grieks momentje') kwam ik vanmiddag op RTLZ tegen
Hans - 01 02 10 - 19:41

Laten we nou eens alles bekijken met de geschiedenis in ons achterhoofd. Italie: de lire, Spanje: de pesetas, Griekenland: de drachma. 1 voor 1 valuta's dat een zeer geschikte vervanger was voor het nogal exculsieve 3-laags "Page" toilet papier.

Maar gelukkig! In Bruxelles hebben ze niet stil gezeten en de gehele Unie is verder verstevigd door toetreding van stabiele Natie's zoals Bulgarije en Roemenie. Daar kunnen we met z'n alle opbouwen. Immers is er nooit geen sprake geweest van excessieve corruptie in het zuidelijk deel van Europa. En in het Oosten van de EU heeft men er nog nooit zijn handen vuil gemaakt aan dergelijk bespottelijk wanpraktijken. Nee, Europa gaat het maken! Want 27 kapiteinen op 1 schip is d formule voor succes.

Dat de Franse President continue bezig is met Franse belang voorop zetten, denk aan de auto industrie, om maar eens een voorbeeld te noemen, dat moeten we maar voor lief nemen.
Immers doet de rest daar niet aan mee. Met name boven genoemde landen / netto ontvangers. Oftwel een uitzondering maakt nog geen regel.

De Euro en EU was en is een goede gedachte. Gebaseerd op langdurige en wel overwogen principes waarbij het Wij gevoel, de eendracht, meer dan voldoende tegenwicht kan bieden t.o.v de US en BRIC. Dat het er in Griekenland wat minder voorstaat en Frankrijk en Duitsland op voorhand aangeven de kar niet te willen trekken daarover hoeft u zich ook geen zorgen te baren.

Even kort door de bocht. Alle netto ontvangers staat er niet zo goed voor? We sturen gewoon Kokkie en Kornuiten erop af, immers kennen zij de basis principes, en die lullen alles wat krom is weer recht.
[timmy] - 02 02 10 - 04:35

Iedereen maakt zich zo druk over landen als Griekenland en nu Amerika komt vaak langs in deze context. Ik geef het nog 10 jaar en dan gaan we met heel West-Europe de boot in. De toch al hoge staatsschulden zijn de laatste tijd explosief gestegen. Afgezien van de crisis is het uitgavenpatroon gewoon op lange termijn niet houdbaar.
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