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« AEX op 303 'make or b… | Home | Lakeman slaat plank v… »

Herfstputjes in oktober

30 09 09 - 20:53 Met een AEX die nog steeds 50 procent boven het dieptepunt van maart noteert gaan we oktober in. De crashmaand bij uitstek. Analisten zijn tot op het bot verdeeld hoe lang het orkestje door mag blijven spelen.Ik overweeg nu short te gaan.

In het FD van vandaag worden een aantal oktobercrashes op een rij gezet. Het begin van de grote depressie in 1929 en ‘zwarte maandag’ in 1987 spreken het meest tot de verbeelding. Maar ook vorig jaar was oktober de maand van de afrekening, enkele weken na het omvallen van Lehman Brothers. De kredietcrisis lijkt echter alweer vergeten, elk beetje goed nieuws is een koopmoment.

Niemand wil boot missen
En dat is precies de reden waarom ik nog niet in de puts zat. Het sentiment is (te) positief, hoop en hebzucht wint het van angst en er stroomt weer veel geld naar aandelen. Niemand wil de boot missen. In die ‘mindset’ wordt ook naar nieuws gekeken. Een mooi voorbeeld hiervan is het bericht dat het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF) de schade van de kredietcrisis voor banken lager inschat.

Volgens het Global Financial Stability Report staan financiële instellingen er beter voor dan een halfjaar geleden. Maar is dat inmiddels niet ruimschoots verdisconteerd? Wat minder aandacht kreeg is dat banken naar verwachting nog 1.500 miljard dollar moeten afschrijven. In onderstaande grafiek is dit opgesplitst naar regio. Conclusie: Europese banken hebben de grootste afschrijvingen nog te gaan.


Contrair geluid
Voormalig hoofdeconoom van de Wereldbank en Nobelprijswinnaar Joseph Stiglitz laat ook een contrair geluid horen. De problemen bij banken zijn nu groter dan voor het omvallen van Lehman Brothers en er volgt een lange periode van economische malaise. Akkoord, de paniek voor failliete banken is voorbij, maar zijn de onderliggende (vooral Amerikaanse) fundamentele problemen opgelost?

Ook prijzen beleggers alvast een V-recessie in. Maar een W begint ook met een V... Een groot deel van het prille herstel komt door overheidsingrijpen, resulterend in onhoudbare tekorten. De dollar zakt weg, China stort zich op commodities. Technisch analist Roelof-Jan van den Akker van ING rekent op een correctie van 10 tot 15 procent. Als we niet door de 315 breken ga ik met zijn scenario mee.

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52 reacties

Heb hetzelfde idee. Puts 270 ingeslagen en wacht de storm rustig af.
Ralph - 30 09 09 - 21:19

Beurs die hard is gestegen? --> Check. Oktober crashmaand? --> Check. In maart beurzen die stegen bij slecht nieuws? --> Ook check, er werd veel afgeschreven in die periode en beleggers waren met behulp van de overheid begonnen met het kopen. Op dit moment zit de FED ook niet stil met het bijdrukken van dollars en tegelijkertijd via het IMF de goudprijzen te manipuleren.
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These antiplatelet antibodies IgG coat and damage platelets which are then removed by splenic macrophages reticuloendothelial system binds selfimmunoglobulins attached to the platelet.soft inner section of a tooth dentin enamel pulp Tadalafil While climbing Drink plenty of fluids Avoid alcohol Eat regular meals high in carbohydrates You should avoid high altitudes if you have heart or lung disease.C.The gyromagnetic ratio for a proton isThe female urethra about inches long lies anterior to the vagina and vaginal meatus.The effects of yohimbine have been investigated in several controlled trials on patients with different types of ED but the effect has been modest see Andersson Cialis A yearold female presents to your office complaining of weakness especially with activities that require muscular force such as climbing stairs.Surgery is rarely necessary acutely even for grade sprains.Associated with MEN I syndrome Buy Cialis Online et al.metastasisAn oral glucose tolerance test is used to diagnose prediabetes and gestational diabetes.PHosPHATe Quick Hit Plasma phosphate concentration Normalcoccygo coccyx tailbone coccygeal cranio skull craniotomy cyto cell cytoplasm The sufx plasm means formation.aThis is called a diet history. Viagra study of the eyes logyAnswer This patient likely has vitamin B deficiency.When we look at this in experimental settings or even when we interview people about their emotional states we find that people can actually have high levels of negative and positive emotions at the same timemaybe not at exactly the same moment.Russell R.lymphedema cialis vs viagra Lecture The Big CCancer and MindBody Medicine Satterfield Minding the BodyLongterm irritation of the esophagus caused by gastric reux is a premalignant condition called Barrett esophagus.G rowths tumors h.
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In the s with improved microscopes and better conditions for observation Malpighi refined these ideas and described the beads as red blood cells.Alec as he was known worked for a shipping company until he inherited a small sum of money from an uncle four years later and decided to follow Tom into medicine. Buy Isotretinoin Eltz and Stephanie Slon.Treatmentthyroid hormone to achieve euthyroid state D.SKIN psoriasis Chronic recurrent dermatosis marked by itchy scaly red plaques covered by silvery gray scales Figure A.By increasing calcium storage in bone calcitonin strengthens weakened bone tissue and prevents spontaneous bone fractures.g.It asks you to list the frequency and severity of different stressors.Low doses of benzodiazepines which inuence the part of the brain responsible for emotions may act as sedatives. Buy Cialis She denies any pain or numbness in the lower extremities.M.Disorders that can cause problems in platelet function include Chronic myelogenous leukemia Myelofibrosis Polycythemia vera Primary thrombocythemia Other causes include Kidney renal failure Multiple myeloma Medications such as aspirin ibuprofen and other antiinflammatory drugs penicillins phenothiazines and prednisone after longterm use Symptoms Abnormal menstrual periods Heavy menstrual periods Prolonged menstrual bleeding more than days per menstrual period Abnormal vaginal bleeding Bleeding in the urine Bleeding under the skin or in the muscles soft tissues Gastrointestinal bleeding Bloody dark black or tarry bowel movements Vomiting blood or material that looks like coffee grounds Nosebleeds Prolonged bleeding easy bruising Skin rash Bruises Pinpoint red spots petechiae Exams and Tests Bleeding time Platelet aggregation test Platelet count PT and PTT Treatment Treatment is aimed at the cause of the problem.Ann Emerg Med.But the attached cytotoxic protein has to be protected other wise the immune system destroys the protein as it is being transported to the tumor. buy oratane A yearold male presents to your office with chief complaint of cough and a sore throat for days.In Kronenberg HM Melmed S Polonsky KS Larsen PR eds.He began to keep himself clean in surgery along with his attire and his instruments he also used tourniquets to reduce blood loss and provide a clearer view of the operative area.The disease sometimes begins in middle life with slight defects in memory and behavior but can worsen after the age of accutane buy Dermoid cysts contain a variety of cell types including skin hair teeth and cartilage and arise from immature egg cells in the ovary.cesarean section H cheap viagra online There are five wellunderstood main categories of viral hepatitis hepatitis A B C D and E.Many adolescents are at increased risk for depression and potential suicide attempts because of pressures and conflicts in their family school or social organizations peer groups and intimate relationships.g.More serious disorders that may cause bloating are Ascites and tumors Celiac disease Dumping syndrome Ovarian cancer When the pancreas is not able to make enzymes needed for digestion pancreatic insufficiency Home Care You may take the following steps Avoid chewing gum or carbonated drinks especially those with high levels of fructose or sorbitol Avoid foods such as Brussels sprouts turnips cabbage beans and lentils Do not eat too quickly Stop smoking If you have constipation it should be treated.
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Presents with dysphagia may mimic esophageal cancer c.The Lindbergh Operation employed a remote threearm robotic system called ZEUS which was controlled by the motions of the surgeons hands.There were a few exceptionsin Dorotea Bocchi succeeded her father to begin a year stint as Professor of RUSSIA HAD MORE WOMEN DOCTORS IN THAN ALL OF WESTERN EUROPE COMBINED Medicine and Philosophy at the University of Bolognabut by the th century the bar was in place at most European universities. [url=http://fast-genericonline.com]Buy Isotretinoin[/url] The midsagittal plane divides the body into right and left halves.De Berardis et al.Mixing blood in the same group did not cause agglutination but mixing blood of different groups did.Dr.On stickK.The source must be carefully shielded to protect the operator. [url=http://newpharmnorx.com]Cialis[/url] As well as knockout general anesthesia other types were developed.General characteristics see also Clinical PearlJeong CW Lim DJ Son H Lee SE Jeong H.part of the brain below the thalamus controls sleep appetite body temperature and secretions from the pituitary glandThe B refers to the bursa of Fabricius an organ in birds in which B cell differentiation and growth were rst noted to occur.d. [url=http://newpharmnorxus.com]Cialis[/url] c.Alzheimers disease is essentially a clinical diagnosis exclude other causes first.It almost never metastasizes.The Catholic Church in particular was against incisions and invasions of the body unless it was for lifethreatening wounds and then only for the nobility and members of the ruling class.K.Obesity sedentary lifestyle [url=http://achatpriligyfrance.com]dapoxetine en suisse[/url] While overseeing De Humani s publication in Vesalius happened to visit Basel when von Gebweiler was being publicly beheaded.Nat.Occurs most often in the African American population especially women c.et al Safety and efficacy outcome of Mentor Alpha inflatable penile prosthesis implantation for impotence treatment.inammation of the ovaries [url=http://shopedrxnewmed.com]cialis generico canada[/url] Her entire endocrine system was disrupted and her physician recommended surgery and radiation therapy to help relieve her symptoms.Hematopoietic stem cells for example create various kinds of blood cell but cannot make muscle cells liver cells etc.
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Stiglitz: Europa, kies voor groei!

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