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Dansen op de dollarvulkaan (2)

13 09 09 - 19:03 Het beleid van de FED, bijdrukken van dollars om staatsobligaties te kopen, kan leiden tot een nieuwe financiële crisis, waarschuwt Liam Halligan in de Telegraph. Verkopen door China en carry-trading vormen een 'ernstig systeemrisico'.

Ondertussen laat China in steeds duidelijker bewoordingen haar afkeuring van het Amerikaanse beleid horen. China is “ontzet” dat de VS doorgaat met ‘quantitative easing’, aldus Cheng Siwei, een belangrijke beleidsmaker. “Als Amerika doorgaat om dollars te printen voor de aankoop van T-bonds, dan spreiden we onze reserves naar andere valuta”, waarschuwde Siwei vorige week.

Geen andere keuze?
Liam Halligan, chief economist bij Prosperity Capital Management, gaat ook in op de veronderstelling dat China geen andere keuze heeft dan Amerikaans staatspapier te blijven kopen. Volgens Halligan is de bezorgdheid over het Amerikaanse monetaire beleid nu zo groot, dat de Chinese autoriteiten zich uitspreken en daarmee een verdere waardedaling van de valutareserves voor lief nemen.

China is nu meer bezorgd over het inflatie-effect op Amerikaanse schulden dan het valutarisico, stelt Halligan. Het Amerikaanse handelstekort liet in juli de snelste stijging zien in bijna 10 jaar. Afgelopen juni bouwde China haar positie in Amerikaanse staatsobligaties af met 3 procent, de grootste daling in negen jaar. Ook gaat het land vanaf deze maand zelf eigen staatspapier uitgeven.

Dollar carry-trade
Zelfs als China en de VS samenwerken om een ‘meltdown’ te voorkomen, kan de valutamarkt haar eigen plan trekken, vreest Halligan. “The dollar is now being used as a ‘carry’ currency. Traders are using low Fed rates to take out cheap dollar loans, then converting the money into currencies generating higher yields”, schrijft Halligan. Een “ernstig systeemrisico”, meent de econoom.

Chinese verkopen en carry-trading zal de dollar verder onder druk zetten. Investeerders die geleend hebben in dollars verdienen geld terwijl de dollar gefinancierde investeringen minder waard worden. Dit kan leiden tot nieuwe “schokgolven” in de wereld, denkt Halligan. Hij verwijst naar 1998, toen de Yen carry-trades ontploften. Met het ongelimiteerd bijdrukken van dollars loopt Amerika hetzelfde risico.

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69 reacties

hoe lang duurt het nog tot de wisselkoersen worden bevroren?
nieuwkomer - 13 09 09 - 20:12

@nieuwkomer
Dat zie ik de komende 20 jaar toch echt niet gebeuren. En zolang de olie nog in dollars wordt afgerekend zal die munt gewoon wereld reservevaluta blijven.
Willem - 13 09 09 - 20:38

ik zie gouden tijden voor goud :-)
mark - 13 09 09 - 20:53

Het ligt eraan hoe groot de schokken zijn. Zoals bij de "dag dat de Dollar valt" werd uitgelegd kan er een situatie komen dat een schip met olie/lading vertrekt en dat bij aankomst de waarde in Dollars flink anders is. En wat als je niet meer goed kan bepalen wat je ervoor moet vragen? Dan is het goed mogelijk dat de Dollar in de ban gaat als het gaat om internationale handel.
Onno - 14 09 09 - 00:10

Kort(zichtig) Amerikaans... If We're Screwed By Our Debt, Then So Is The Rest Of The World

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-2010-d..
Hans - 16 09 09 - 23:25

Kijk eens naar de Rate Of Change van de US t.o.v. de rest van de wereld... dan zie je direct wat het echte probleem is.
martin - 17 09 09 - 15:28

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2..

http://newsstage.org/index.php?option=co..
Ferry - 20 09 09 - 21:48

Ferry, interessant verhaal!
Bekeek zojuist video op tweede link. Glenn Beck interviewt editor van Business Insider over dit onderwerp.
Mogelijk gaan we er maandag wat mee doen.
Hans - 20 09 09 - 22:00

Reuters verhaalde bij het eerste voorval dat 't om vervalsingen zou gaan. Persoonlijk vind ik vervalsingen van +100miljard nogal aan de extreme kant.

Maar als ik US treasury was, zou ik dat ook zeker zeggen.
Ferry - 20 09 09 - 22:07

met smokkelen is het altijd zo dat maar een klein gedeelte van het totale smokkelwaar wordt gevonden. In mijn beleving is er dus veel meer bonds worden verkocht. vals of niet vals, dat maak niet uit. Zijn landen dan echt begonnen met hun verkoop van dollars? Ik denk van wel.
balt - 21 09 09 - 11:05

kan ook een leugen zijn van amerika. Bonds kun je ook legaal vervoeren. en dan breek er natuurlijk paniek uit als japan 134 miljard dollars verkoopt.(de japanners konden gewoon spoorloos verdwijnen naar huis) Dan maar ontkennen, denken de amerikaen.
zou ook een mogelijkheid zijn. is wel spannend allemaal.
Ik blijf bij goud...
balt - 21 09 09 - 11:16

Het verhaal is al vrij oud, had al eens eerder elders gelezen. Eerder was er nog geen nieuws of de bonds echt waren of niet.
De vraag bij mij is: zouden ze geaccepteerd/ingewisseld kunnen worden als ze niet waren tegen gehouden?
134 miljard is een groot bedrag, stel dat je een rotsblok een zetje geeft van een helling, dan krijg je een waterval van andere verkopers.

Stoer om het in een koffertje te doen, beetje knullig aan andere kant ook wel weer met zo'n dubbele bodem hahaha. Is dit in werkelijkheid geen script van een b-film wat op straat is komen te liggen?
Onno - 21 09 09 - 19:02

@onno
hoe oud is het artikel dan?
balt - 21 09 09 - 22:12

Het is van 18 september. Het gaat hiet om een tweede smokkel.
Ferry - 21 09 09 - 22:45

vandaag is in zo'n 10 min. rond 9.15 uur de dollar een volle cent omhoog gegaan.
wouw...
blijf dansen, anders brand je.;-)
balt - 22 09 09 - 18:33

@ Balt volgens mij was het alweer een maand of 2 ongeveer.
Onno - 22 09 09 - 23:00

Iran dumpt de dollar!
http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2009/0..
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Stiglitz: Europa, kies voor groei!

Editors Choice -- 08 2013 at 9:50 pm Nobelprijswinnaar Joseph Stiglitz: A central bank that focuses not only on inflation, but also on growth, employment, and financial stability; Replacing anti-growth austerity policies with pro-growth policies focusing on investments in people, technology, and infrastructure.




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