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Dow 13K; 7 geopolitieke 'black swans'

28 02 12 - 22:24 Op de dag dat de Dow Jones voor het eerst sinds de crisis van 2008 weer boven de 13.000 punten is gesloten, komt Charles Schwab met een lijstje 'black swans' die het beursfeestje kunnen verstoren. Opvallend: veel geopolitiek, maar hoge olie- en benzineprijzen blijven achterwege. Ook de aanhoudende eurocrisis is voor Liz Ann Sonders kennelijk een ver van mijn bed show. Enfin, lees en oordeel zelf. Used tags: , , , ,
17 reacties

En we hadden al (economische) bedreigingen genoeg.
Goosss - 28 02 12 - 22:32

Ha ha ha ha.
Duidelijk een Neocon die angst wil zaaien.
Daarom lees ik nooit de "Business Insider". Lijstje is te stompzinnig voor woorden.
taco (Email) - 29 02 12 - 22:46

Voor de liefhebber mijn analyse zoals ik die deze week naar een Franse kennis stuurde.

There are a couple of reasons that make me think the threat for a war with Iran is over
1. Putin will be elected next week, he made it clear he will not accept an attack on Syria and Iran.
(Remember Georgia 2008 some said Puttin had advert an attack on Iran)
2. Gasoline price are up and start to harm Europe and the US. On the US news-channels high gasoline price is now a daily topic and they have now correlation-charts with reelections and high oil price. It seems there is a negative correlation ;-)
3. Israel is not capable to do the job alone. Without the help of the US I think it can be suicide, at least for the current administration. (or they revert to nukes, but that seems to me absurd)
4. The no fly-zone (free-passage) above Syria failed and there are rumors that Russia is beefing up its early warning system in Syria. (I remember that there was some treaty between Russia an Syria)
5. Assad will not be remove from power and in the worse case he will revenge the Saudi Mad Kings by a tit for tat weapon supply to the Saudi-Opposition. There are suspicions that the Sunni's are armed by the mad kings
A chaotic war can be the right climate for such revenge/support to the Shias in Saudi-Arabia.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/20..

4. China, Pakistan and India implicitly support Iran
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012/02/..

So according to my assessment the West lose the fight with Iran. Iranian Oil will flow to far east and payed in non Dollar swap. Price of oil will drop steady in the coming weeks.

What do you think?

Zijn reactie:

Klinkt logisch, alleen de geschiedenis leert ons dat onlogisch handelen uiteindelijk de uitkomst bepalen. :-)
taco (Email) - 29 02 12 - 22:50

Hier nog een berichtje hoe de Iran boycot mogelijk een schot in eigen voet wordt.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news..

Goud nu monetised :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29..


Als Chinezen schepen kunnen verzekeren die naar Iran varen dan volgen er weldra meer.

Als China India Pakistan en Iran alternatieve payment-systemen organiseren dan zullen snel meer landen aanhaken.
taco (Email) - 01 03 12 - 13:05

P.S.

Als ze dat niet voor elkaar krijgen is dat een "win" voor US-EU-Israel. Time will tell.
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Stiglitz: Europa, kies voor groei!

Editors Choice -- 08 2013 at 9:50 pm Nobelprijswinnaar Joseph Stiglitz: A central bank that focuses not only on inflation, but also on growth, employment, and financial stability; Replacing anti-growth austerity policies with pro-growth policies focusing on investments in people, technology, and infrastructure.




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